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Sunday, October 6, 2024

Online sentiment shifts post-vice-presidential debate: Study reveals changes for Harris and Trump

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Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business at New York University's Stern School of Business | New York University's Stern School of Business

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business at New York University's Stern School of Business | New York University's Stern School of Business

A recent study conducted by New York University's Predictive Analytics and AI Research Group has revealed a decline in online sentiment toward Vice President Kamala Harris following the vice-presidential debate. The research found that the sentiment toward Harris decreased more significantly than for former President Donald Trump during and after the debate between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz.

Anasse Bari, head of NYU's Predictive Analytics and AI Research Group, explained the importance of examining how debates affect candidates not present on stage. "Post-debate conversations often center on who won the contest," he stated. "But a more significant question is what impact did a vice-presidential debate have on the two candidates not on the stage."

The study utilized Reddit posts to measure public sentiment towards both presidential nominees before, during, and after the event. Harris's sentiment score dropped approximately 18% from before to during the debate, declining further afterward. In contrast, Trump's score fell by around 23% but partially recovered by 10% post-debate.

Interestingly, while immigration and healthcare were focal points of discussion during the debate, their sentiment scores remained unchanged as a result of it. Immigration saw a significant dip during the event but returned to its initial level afterward. Healthcare experienced a similar pattern with an overall positive rebound post-debate.

The researchers also analyzed online search trends related to key topics discussed during the debate. Abortion was identified as the most searched topic with an increase of 22% compared to previous searches during September's presidential debate. Other notable increases included searches for "Economy," "Israel," "Tax," and "Carbon emissions."

In addition to Bari, other contributors from NYU’s Courant Institute included Charles Wang, Harrison Gao, Naman Lalit, Atmaj Koppikar, Kartik Kanotra, Suryavardan Suresh, Yifei Xu, Dev Pant, Anway Agte, and Tomisin Adeyemi.

The methodology involved tracking sentiments across various platforms such as Reddit posts and Google search trends using natural language processing techniques three hours prior to two hours after the debate.

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