NYC Gazette

Political analysts and journalists are working to interpret polls and early voting data to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, a research team from New York University is exploring online searches for yard signs as an alternative method to gauge voter interest.

The researchers at NYU's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences have found that since Harris announced her candidacy on July 21, she has led Trump in yard-sign-related searches with 76% compared to Trump's 24%. However, when it comes to candidate-related attire, the results differ significantly. From July 21 to mid-October, searches for "Trump hat" were twice as frequent as those for "Harris hat." The trend for shirts showed a similar pattern; initially, "Harris shirts" led by about 15%, but from September 1 through October 16, "Trump shirts" surged ahead by 129%.

Anasse Bari, a professor of computer science at NYU and senior researcher on the study, stated: “If someone is searching for their candidate’s yard sign, shirt, hat, flag, or bumper sticker, there is a strong likelihood that they will vote for them. While it’s uncertain how predictive these behaviors are of election results, search data that supplement traditional election-prediction methods may enhance the accuracy of political forecasts.”

The Predictive Analytics and AI Research Lab at NYU had previously analyzed online searches during the fall of 2020. They found then-candidate Joe Biden leading Trump by 28% in yard-sign-related searches.

Prior to Harris's entry into the race on July 21 and following Trump's announcement of his third presidential bid on November 15, 2022, Trump led Biden in yard-sign search queries from mid-November 2022 through June 30, 2024. Interest peaked around late May when Trump was convicted on May 30 for falsifying business records.

Elon Musk's tweet on October 17 encouraging supporters to display Trump/Vance signs further boosted searches for Trump signs over Harris signs despite Harris maintaining an overall lead from July through October.

In swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from July to mid-October this year—at least 60% of related searches were for "Trump hat," while none exceeded a similar percentage for "Harris hat." However, "Harris Walz hat" dominated with at least an 84% share across these states.

The study involved several other researchers from NYU's Predictive Analytics and AI Research Group: Charles Wang, Naman Lalit, Yifei Xu among others. Their methodology included analyzing publicly available Google search data using specific terms related to both candidates. The team also conducted additional studies during the elections focusing on debates using big data analytics techniques.