A recent study conducted by researchers at Columbia University anticipates a significant increase in uterine cancer cases and fatalities in the United States over the next 30 years, with Black women expected to be disproportionately affected. Jason D. Wright, the Sol Goldman Professor of Gynecologic Oncology at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, emphasized the need for new preventive and screening strategies for high-risk women.
Uterine cancer is one of the few cancers with rising incidence and mortality rates. From 2010 to 2020, diagnosed cases in the U.S. surged from about 43,000 to over 65,000. Currently, death rates from uterine cancer are approximately twice as high among Black women compared to white women.
The Columbia University Uterine Cancer Model forecasts continued increases in uterine cancer rates over the next 25 years for both Black and white women. The model simulates women’s trajectories based on age, type of uterine cancer, race, obesity (a known risk factor), and hysterectomy (which reduces risk). According to Wright, “Our model predicts that current trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality will continue for the foreseeable future.” The study projects a rise in cases by over 50% among Black women versus about 29% among white women between 2018 and 2050.
Several factors contribute to this higher burden among Black women. Wright noted that “Black women often face delays in diagnosis” and are more likely diagnosed at later stages when treatment becomes more challenging. They also tend to have more aggressive forms of uterine cancer.
The research team tested their model by introducing a hypothetical screening tool capable of detecting early-stage or precancerous changes sooner than currently possible. Wright stated that “screening with an effective test starting at age 55 would result in a significant reduction in uterine cancer cases,” highlighting the importance of developing new screening methods.
Currently used diagnostic tools include transvaginal ultrasound and endometrial biopsy for symptomatic women; however, there is no routine screening method for asymptomatic individuals. New techniques like liquid biopsies are under investigation as potential screening tools.
The study was published on July 1st in Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention with contributions from multiple institutions including Massachusetts General Hospital, National Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Duke University Medical Center, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center along with support from the National Institutes of Health (1U01CA265739).
Jason Wright has received royalties from UpToDate along with honoraria from professional organizations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists while Xiao Xu received honoraria from other associations related to gynecology procedures; Elena Elkin obtained research support from Pfizer but no other conflicts were reported by co-authors involved within this publication.